Bernie Sanders should get out of the race! Really???

So since Hilary Clinton won the NY Primary convincingly there has been chorus after chorus after chorus of Clinton campaigners, surrogates and supporters  calling for Bernie to drop out as it’s “mathematically impossible to win” which is both incorrect and hypocritical.

As you know from August of last year I have said that I thought Hilary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. but the rhetoric coming from the Clinton campaign is ridiculous.

So two charges aimed at Clinton supporters.

The first is that it’s mathematically impossible to win. No one is saying it’s now not improbable or unlikely for Sanders to win but impossible is a measurable statement that is pretty easy to dispute. If you don’t count super delegates, and you shouldn’t as none of them have voted yet, Bernie Sanders is currently 246 delegates behind Clinton and there are still 1668 delegates to be allocated to either Sanders of Clinton. For Sander to draw level on delegates before the convention he would need to win 957 of them to Clinton’s 711. That’s just over 57% of the remaining delegates. Improbable…but not impossible. That would then leave both candidates just over 200 delegates short of the majority needed which would then go to the super delegates. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.

The second charge is the hypocrisy coming out of the Clinton camp. In 2008 when Hilary Clinton was running against Barack Obama, with Obama in the lead she refuse to suspend her campaign until June 7th and only when Obama had gathered enough delegates (including super delegates) to pass that majority number. Even with the delegates who have indicated they would go with Clinton (yet I say again haven’t officially cast their vote yet) she is still about 400 short of the mark. Sanders is also performing much stronger that Clinton was at the same time in 2008 when she refused to drop out.

So, whilst it seems the chips are certainly stacked against Bernie Sanders, he is very much still in the race and calling for him to get out is undemocratic, unconstitutional and hypocritical for anyone involved with the Clinton campaign.

 

What Bernie Sanders needs to do to win

Bernie Sanders has the momentum. He has won 6 primaries in a row and 7 of the last 8. Yesterday he received 80% of the millennial vote in the  Wisconsin Primary and there is a ground swell coming the likes of which American politics has never seen. With all this, it is still an uphill battle that most commemorators don’t think he will be able to climb to get that nomination for the Democratic Party to take on the Republicans in November.

He needs more

That ‘more’ comes in the Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren who many believe will eventually come out to support Sanders but is currently keeping her powder very, very dry.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren need to come together and announce that she would be his running mate should he be elected as the nominee. She answers many of the questions that are being asked about with Bernie Sanders including the most recent “is he a Democrat anyways?” by Hilary Clinton. Any women still sticking with Hillary Clinton because she is a woman would then also have the opportunity to take the gender difference out of the equation as both sides would be breaking the glass ceiling for women on some level.

The usual process of nominating a running mate happens in either July or August so this would be an unconventional step for the Sanders campaign to take but one needs to ask what about this Sanders campaign has been conventional to date. It could also be a risky step for Warren to take as if Sanders does not get the nomination she may well be in the wilderness in a Clinton presidency.

Sanders has the momentum, Clinton currently has the numbers but watch this space.

 

Why there is no path forward for Ted Cruz

Of the three remaining contestants in the GOP run for President, Ted Cruz is the only one with no path forward.

I used to do a radio slot where I talked to a Conservative American contributor one week, then a Progressive American contributor in the same slot the following week. I’ve stayed connected to the Conservative contributor even though it’s evident by the stone wall of silence I get from him that he now wants nothing to do with me, however I enjoy going to his page and seeing what his followers and ‘friends’ are talking about. Steve Deace is a ‘major surrogate of Ted Cruz‘, as Carly Fiorina described respondeding to a tweet he sent out claiming she “goes full vagina” during a debate introduction, and he actively tells his listeners and followers that if they support Trump they need to unfriend him Trump Deace Cruzand not listen to his radio show. I wanted to explain a bit of background to this because my comments about Cruz having no path forward is in no way support for Kasich or Trump as I have been accused of on  Deace’s Facebook page so to my American friends and readers please take this post as a perspective from outside America from someone who follows your election process religiously and can see the pros and cons from many aspects..

Ted Cruz has no path forward for three reasons. He will not get to the magical 1237 delegates before the GOP conference, he will not be the front runner when it comes to the GOP conference and he is not the candidate that the conference establishment will get behind so he is stuck in no-mans-lands.

For Ted Cruz to win the nomination before the conference he need to win about 772 of the remaining 848 delegates (or 91%) to make it to 1237 which is the number of delegates needed to become the GOP Presidential nomination so we can eliminate that as a possibility immediately.

For Cruz to become the front runner, and by that I mean leader in number of delegates, before the convention he will need to win between 60% and 70% of the remaining delegates. Even if he was awarded all the winner take all states he would still need to win about 55%-60% of all the remaining proportional delegates. These numbers are highly, highly improbable even if we just give a big win to Trump in New York, which will happen, the equation falls over for Cruz.

Finally if no one receives the 1237 delegates outright we go to a contested convention and, as we have seen in the past, these conventions are usually controlled by the party insiders whom today are referred to with disdain as the ‘party elite‘ or the ‘establishment‘. The ‘establishmenthates Ted Cruz to the core leaving John Kasich as the only candidate left for the elite to support.

So Ted Cruz won’t get 1237 delegates, he won’t be the front runner, he is not going to be the establishment choice…so what next?

The obvious answer is that there is no path forward for him, he ticks no boxes that lead to him being the nomination…apart from one. The ‘anyone but Trump’ box.

The only way that Ted Cruz could possibly become the GOP nominee for President is either John Kasich drops out making Cruz the lesser of two evils with two non-establishment candidates, or is the establishment move away from their candidate in Kasich because they think that Cruz has a better chance of beating Clinton or Sanders in November. Unfortunately for Cruz in most if not all of the head to head Presidential polls over the past few months Kasich has out performed both Trump and Cruz leaving the establishment at the convention to justifiably put forward Kasich as the most likely candidate to beat either Democratic nominee which leaves Cruz’s only chance being Kasich dropping out which looks unlikely.

Whilst you never say never in politics, it seems to me that speaking logically it is highly unlikely any of the above possibilities for Cruz above will be the scenario for him to get the nomination which leads me to believe that there is no path forward for Ted Cruz to be the Republican nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election.

Update US Election 2016. Are you about to #FeelTheBern

I said in August of 2015 that Hillary Clinton was going to walk away with this election and the GOP knew she was. I actually think in February of 2016 that is still the most likely scenario, but it’s not quite as clear cut as it was, and it’s certainly not what is best for America, but then again what is best for American may shock some Americans (unless you’re under 35).

Bernie Sanders is a septuagenarian politician who is resonating with Millennials/GenY population of the US. He is a Democratic Socialist and wants kids in American to be able to have access to free tertiary education and thinks that to have free access to health care is a human right that everyone should be entitled. He is the candidate, Democrat or Republican, who has the most consistent track record over 40 plus years of his political ideology and he would bring a revolution to the US should he get over the line and be the Democratic nominee…and there is a chance that may happen.

One of Bernie Sanders’ biggest issues is that as a ‘Democratic Socialist’ he has been tarred with a narrative from his opposition that he is un-electable, however polls are showing again and again that he is probably more electable than Hillary Clinton.

head to head

These are a series of polls by Quinnipiac University, a reputable source of polling, and shows that in a head to head race Hillary Clinton loses to 4 out of the 5 GOP candidates (even Bush who is no longer there) and only beats Donald Trump by one point whereas Sanders beats all 5 GOP candidates, two of them with double digit leads. Now ‘yes’ this is just a poll and we all know that the only poll that matters in on electron day, but the trend is showing Sanders’ support increasing and Clinton’s decreasing to a point where the votes are looking very 50/50 in most of the foreseeable primaries.

What the American population needs to understand that what this ‘far left’ oft called ‘Socialist’ candidate is promising them is what the rest of the world calls ‘business as usual’. In NZ Sanders would be on the centre-left, swinging to the left on some of his ideas, but he wouldn’t be seen as extreme in his views. In the UK it’s just been pointed out the Sanders is very much like their Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. I would like to see an interview with our ‘Right Wing’ Prime Minister asking him where he stood on some of Sanders’ ideas and you’d find that he would likely agree with a good portion of them. Say that to an American conservative voter and their head would explode.

Looking specifically at this election, the numbers are clear, that if Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nomination he is the favorite to be the next President, however the institution set up around the political world of corporate money, advertising dollars, SuperPac influence do not want Sanders to get the nod and whether he can overcome that is the biggest question. Clinton is weak in areas that appeal to the voter for Sanders, she takes money from SuperPacs, she earns from Wall Street (millions in fact from speeches she and Bill have given) and she doesn’t want to upset the apple cart with small manageable goals versus Sanders calling for a revolution. Clinton has chinks in her armor that a GOP nominee could exploit whereas they don’t have that opportunity against Sanders. She is still under a cloud with the FBI investigating here email server issue and questions around how money is being used in the Clinton Foundation, if either of those blew up during the presidential run, well I don’t want to alarm anyone, but you could well be saying “Hello President Trump.”

What both the Democrats and GOP need to understand is that, if not this election, then the reign of the institutional politician is coming to an end. If Clinton get’s over the line this time, then by the end of an 8 year reign that Millenial/GenY population will be late 20s to mid 40s and a very powerful voting block possiblly even having nominees running for President themselves.

I would love to see a President Sanders and yes I am prepared to say that whilst I think the odds are still with Clinton, the best thing for America would be to #FeelTheBern and put Sanders in the Whitehouse.