The GOP is not going to win the 2016 election and they know it. 

I admit it, I’m a political tragic. I watch, I read, I talk politics 24/7 often to the frustration of my friends and family. I love (that’s L-O-V-E) the American political system and its tendency to maneuver effortlessly between political animal, theatrical event and circus performance. I don’t admire the American political system…but it’s like a drug that I can’t get enough of.

I picked Barrack Obama to win in 2008 over a year out, and again in 2012 in fact I’ve been pretty good at predicting US results, and terrible with our own, maybe this is testament to how much I love watching the insanity that Jon Stewart calls ‘Democalypse 2012/2016″ etc…

I am in the middle of watching the two GOP debates on FoxNews and I wanted to state publicly that all the posturing that the candidates are doing is not going to make one jot of difference. Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States and the Republicans know it.

Since 2007 the Republican Party has lost the votes of women, minorities and the youth. There has been nothing done to redress this issue, in fact since the 2008 election they have lost even more support from that segment of society. If all things were equal, and a political party was actively trying to attracted a demographic and doing a great job at it, it would take longer that one election cycle to achieve this. The current GOP front runners are not only not doing a good job at attracting back those votes, in many cases they are harming their chances of getting them even more putting at risk the ability to win in 2020 and 2024 as well.

The Republican Party know this as in evident in their attacks on Hilary Clinton already, 16 months out from the election they are already painting here as evil incarnate and blaming her for every negative position they are also throwing at President Obama linking the two as one.

Here is an example from the official GOP twitter account from yesterday.

ScaredofhilaryI think we all accept that Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, but as she isn’t officially selected yet, it’s fascinating that the Republicans are attacking her and are scaring their base into action for 2016. Just watch how many of those kinds of tweets become talking points for ‘Joe the plumber‘ types in news interviews next year.

As ironic as it sounds, and maybe you’ll think me a little naive, but I believe that the only way that the GOP has any chance of taking down the Democrats and getting into the Whitehouse is if the nominee ends up being Donald Trump. The rationale behind this is a little unusual, as a wee bit disrespectful to Mr. Trump, but here goes.

The absolute ridiculous nature or having Donald Trump as POTUS will be so enticing to a sector of the American voting public that he might get the bump he needs. Think the ‘Bill and Ben Party‘ or ‘McGillicuddy Serious Party there is a protest vote that goes with that parody of a party that attracts disenfranchised and young voters. The problem is, Mr. Trump is not a parody, he is very much a real and active part of the American political landscape. I still don’t think that will be enough to get the GOP over the line…but my goodness that would be the best television political tragics like me, would have ever seen.

If the political gods are listening right now please, oh please, oh please let Donald Trump get the Republican nomination

 

Malala Yousafzai Interview

Malala Yousafzai the girl who was shot in the head by the Taliban in Pakistan for wanting an education, who since has spoken to the UN and has become the youngest person every to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Price had a three part interview on The Daily Show last night.

Comedy Central doesn’t allow embedding in WordPress (if you can help with this message me) so here is part one of the interview that someone has put on YouTube, and below are the links to Comedy Central where you can watch both parts on their site.

Part One of the interview on Comedy Central

Part Two of the interview on Comedy Central

Part Three of the interview on Comedy Central

If you want to know more about Malala Yousafzai you can check out her book and her foundation

US Shutdown

Many people here in New Zealand are confused about what’s currently happening in America and the whole ‘shutdown’ thing especially when we hear differing reports blaming one side or the other. Most in the media are saying there is blame on both sides, which on some minor way is probably true, but the truth is that the blame for this shut down lies 99% not even with the GOP, but with a subset of the GOP called the Tea Party. Think ACT on steroids, in it’s heyday with massive power, and the belief that they have the mandate from God to return America to ‘the traditions of it’s founding fathers’. On top of all of that you’d have to also imagine that National are fearful of losing votes so they began to accept and imitate the style and rhetoric of ACT…that’s what the Tea Party is.

Here’s the reason the blame is not spread evenly over the two parties.

The Democrats have attempted since the last budget 17 times to negotiate with the GOP to no avail, yet now that the Government has shut down the Republicans are screaming ‘Why won’t they negotiate?’ but the biggest reason the shutdown and all it’s negative impacts lies with the Republicans is that The Affordable Care Act or Obamacare is a law that has already passed, by both houses in 2009…It’s already law…sorry you may not have heard that…ahem…IT’S ALREADY LAW!!!

What you have is a small faction now saying they was to re-negotiate the law…which you cannot do…it’s already been agreed to and a small group has said ‘We don’t like it’ so they are holding the country to ransom and trying to act like they are the moderate party being reasonable.

There hasn’t been one time ever, when the US Government has shut down, that it was over a law that had already passed, so there are no apples to even compare this situation to.

I know I have used Jon Stewart recently but I have to say, with the use of comedy, the team at The Daily Show often nail the facts. Enjoy

March of the Dumbs

March of the Dumbs – Government Shutdown

And if you only have time to watch one clip this is the one for you

Obamacare Begins

 

 

The War on Christmas

Daily Show War on ChristmasEvery year in America there is a ‘War on Christmas’ as sold by Fox News.

Is it so…or is it an exaggeration?

Oh, and while we are here…don’t be concerned about people using the phrase ‘Happy Holidays’…it’s an appropriate way of covering what we call the holiday period that starts about Christmas and ends in the New Year rather than saying “Merry Christmas and Happy New Year”…not so sinister ah?

And one more thing, please this year…show some holiday spirit and don’t believe the hype you’ll hear some on talkback stations that Christmas is being banned in places like kindergartens. What normally follows those ignorant statements is someone then blaming a minority for the changes. If…and I do say if…this happens anywhere the likely scenario is that some pen-pusher bureaucrat decided independently that someone may be offended so they make the move, when they needn’t.

Check out The Daily Show’s take on the War on Christmas from last night…

Part One

Part Two