John Banks might be the reason for the early election

At 2.20pm this afternoon when I heard the breaking news that John Banks had been convicted of  falsely declaring an electoral report I had a thought, it was the first time I had this thought…but I pondered it all the same.

Assuming that John Banks is now no longer an MP as statute says if a sitting MP is convicted of a crime that could result in a two year or more prison term, and this conviction is that, then they must resign as an MP AND assuming there is no time for a by-election then from now until Thursday 14th August when Parliament is dissolved the Government must go to the Maori Party to pass any legislation. Even if Mr. Banks stays in Parliament through that period as he has not been sentenced yet, it will be wise for Mr. Key not to use his vote to pass legislation as that would open him up to significant, and justifiable, criticism from the opposition using the vote of a convicted criminal to pass law.

If the election date had of been the usual end of November, then Parliament would have dissolved at the end of October and National would have had to go cap in hand to the Maori Party for another two months.

I just wondered today is John Key took the ultimate gamble and, rather than Government business at the end of the year, he was worried that John Banks may have been convicted and would have had a lame-duck Government for longer than was desirable.

I know it may seem a little conspiracy theory, but if it was one of the contributing factors to the election date you’d have to say, whether you agree with his politics or not, it was a genius move by the Prime Minister.

As a side note, if a by-election is called in Epsom John Key will no longer be able to call any referendum driven by the left as a waste of money, because a by-election weeks out from an election would be the singular biggest waste of money of recent time.

What’s Kim Dotcom’s end game here?

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I find the idea of Kim Dotcom forming a political party a fascinating plot in this years drama that is the 2014 election.

I want to know what Kim’s end game is, and I wonder if there is a chance that his involvement with the election this year will aid National in being re-elected, so I ponder again what his end game is.

I see now that Russell Norman has asked the same questions as it was revealed on Newstalk ZB yesterday that he twice approached Mr. Dotcom asking him not to form a party as it would split the vote on the left. An astute observation by Dr. Norman who is fast becoming one of the more enlightened MPs we have in parliament.

There is such an interesting sub-text here that will only be revealed if the questions are put to Mr. Dotcom himself.

  • Why are you bankrolling a political party when you cannot be elected to parliament?
  • What are you main ambitions behind the party?
  • Are you wanting a change of government?
  • If so are you not concerned that your party will take votes away from the left, especially some of the Greens youth vote?

Comedian Chris Brain pondered at the end of 2013 during the year in review episode of The Slightly Correct Political Show why the left has held up Kim Dotcom as a hero saying it strange that they would hold up someone as a poster boy who is ‘a free market capitalist who doesn’t believe particularly in protecting intellectual property.’ Think what the left has stood up for in the past term with protests against legislation around movie making, Helen Clark’s famous connection to the art and grants has intertwined the artistic community with the left. That on top of his connections with the right via John Banks and ACT makes this, to me, a salacious part of the political year.

I think it pretty fair to assume that no one from the right of the political spectrum will be voting for the Internet Party, which means that in the very likely scenario that the Internet Party doesn’t make 5% (and they likely won’t) that Dr. Russell Norman is completely correct, it will be youth votes, that would normally be associated with Mana and the Greens and maybe to a lesser extent Labour that will become non-votes perhaps making it easier to allow John Key to get a third term as Prime Minister

So again I ponder what is the end game here. Kim Dotcom has apparently surrounded himself with talented, albeit far far left, political consultants like Martyn ‘Bomber’ Bradbury, who is talented and smart (and a nice guy all in all) but has an overwhelming dislike for the right and is an ideologue and a zealot whose perceptions sometimes clouds his judgements. ‘Bomber’ is someone that John Key could rightfully label someone with a ‘far left agenda’ and my boggle is to see how that can possibly work to oust the incumbent government.

So if we agree (and you might now) that the Internet Party will attract young left voters, and if one of Kim Dotcom’s ambitions is to see a change of government then the stars do not seem to align…so is it that I am wrong thinking the Internet Party will fall short, is it that the Internet Party is deluded in what they are thinking, or is it that Kim Dotcom has an ulterior agenda with his apparent right wing, free market, connections.

Full disclosure. I connected with Vikram Kumar and Finn Batato about helping Mr. Dotcom with some ideas and they’ve obviously chosen to go a different way which is fine…but they way they are now travelling is…confusing…to say the least.

I just don’t know what’s going to happen from here…but I am intrigued!

Goodbye ACT. John Banks to stand trial

It began with Kim Dotcom and ends with John Banks facing charges over “over allegations that he falsified his 2010 mayoral campaign return.”

What will this mean, well surely if the deal wasn’t sealed before it is now that ACT is gone from the 2014 election making it even harder for National to be re-elected. ACT and the Maori Party are somewhat in disarray and no matter how keen and confident they are I don’t think the Conservatives are able to step into the fold to take ACT’s place.

John Banks gone, ACT gone, Maori Party to lose a couple more seats, no coalition partner to take their place. Greens increasing everyday and Labour a small resurgent period since Cunliffe comes on board makes it an interesting 12 months.

I called it several months ago albeit with some different variables but I’ll stand by it and say it again now. Labour to win in 2014.

UPDATED 5.30pm

John Banks has resigned from all this ministerial portfolios

Has the NZ Herald ripped off The Daily Show?

I see one of the cartoons in this morning’s NZ Herald has raised a few chuckles

John Key breast feeds John Banks…shudder!!!

Quite funny ah? A piss take of the now infamous Time Magazine cover article of a mother breast feeding a nearly 4 year old child.

But I thought that I had seen it before…two conservative politicians in a take-off of that time magazine cover, then it came to me.

Exactly one week ago on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

John Boehner nursing Harry Reid.

Has the herald ripped off The Daily Show…you decide.

See the full The Daily Show segment here

Pat Brittenden Mornings Audio

Monday 30th April

Dr Bryce Edwards shares his vast insight into the situation around Kim Dotcom, John Key and John Banks

The latest news can be seen here

The Panel with Bob McCoskrie and David Slack

Bob and David chat about SKY City sponsoring celebrities to come and be on site, have the Police handled the Teapot saga well and their thoughts on the one month anniversary of the shooting of Treyvon Martin in Florida by George Zimmerman