With the recent passing of #RBG the election has just been thrown into disarray and President Trump has an advantage that results in many ways that he could win…and only one way that Joe Biden can win.
Unless Joe Biden wins large on election day…and I mean LARGE…I think we are looking at President Donald J Trump for another four years. Let me explain.
Donald Trump has successfully undermined the appearance of the postal ballot that many voters now think that there is and will be wide spread voter fraud, perpetrated by the Democrats, in a way to ‘steal’ the election. There is, of course, no evidence for this and no evidence of wide spread voter fraud ever in any American election both with in person voting and mail in ballots.
Politicians at all levels of government have repeatedly, and falsely, claimed the 2016 and 2018 elections were marred by millions of people voting illegally. However, extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent, and many instances of alleged fraud are, in fact, mistakes by voters or administrators. The same is true for mail ballots, which are secure and essential to holding a safe election amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The next lie that President Trump is guilty of, is to try to convince the public that the US Postal Service will not be able to handle the increase in mail that, due to COVID19, will occur from mail in voting. Aside from the irony that Trump is stating that the Post Office won’t be able to handle the extra volume, whilst stripping the Post Office finances making it impossible for the to do so, the actual increase in volume can be easily handled by the Post Office. Even if all 130,000,000 voters were to send mail in ballots, that is a drop in the bucket compared to the 1.3 billion Christmas cards that the Post Office delivers in the weeks leading up to Christmas because of the holiday. If they can deliver 1.3 billion, then one tenth of that is surely not an issue.
Christmas is the largest card-sending holiday in the United States with approximately 1.3 billion cards sent annually.
Now, even with these overwhelming facts at their disposal, President Trump has still cast enough of a shadow over the legitimacy of mail in ballots, that Trump, his supporters and Republicans will be able to weave the narrative that, if it is in their self interest, the votes coming in by mail should not be trusted.
How does this relate to RBG’s passing and Biden winning LARGE on election day, well like this.
It is highly probable that Trump will be leading the vote at the end of the election day. Research has already showed that 80% of Trump voters are likely to vote in person on the day, while only 58% of Biden voters are committed to do the same. This disparity could see Trump ahead at the end of the 3rd of November and should Biden then take the lead after election day via the mail in votes, then all hell will break loose.
The fight over who has won will head to the Supreme Court should Biden take the lead after election day. This is not what should happen, but due to the discontent that Trump has already sown this, I believe, is an inevitability. With the passing of RBG the liberal judges are now out numbered three to five and even if Justice Roberts joined his three liberal bench mates as he did to preserve an Obama era programme, that would only lead to a four to four result. If the Supreme Court is locked at a four to four result then the decision drops down to the next level of courts, where Trump has been appointing conservative judges giving the Conservative position the edge and likely Trump the win.
Should Trump manage to appoint a new Supreme Court judge before the election, then there is a six to three conservative dominance in SCOTUS and that dominance is unlikely to be overturned even if Roberts were to swing….leading to any case before them likely leaning to Trump.
So, where this leave us, is that unless Joe Biden doesn’t win, and win very, very comfortably on November 3rd, I think that Trump…through nefarious means…sewing discontent and being supported by the Senators and Congresspeople around him…will be the next President of the United States. It will be the heist of the century and have to involve Trump, his supporters, the GOP and the Supreme Court and ‘Yes’ it sounds like the new ‘Oceans’ movie…but think about what 2020 has already thrown at the world and ask yourself…is it really that unlikely?